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10.24.2025
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Executive Summary

  • The Fed cut rates 25bps, which helped all asset classes perform well in September.
  • Economic activity continues to look supportive within labor markets.
  • Loan market outperformance depends on avoiding borrowers with weaknesses similar to those that sank auto-parts maker First Brands in September.

Market Recap

September was a strong month for risk assets as the Fed cut rates 25 bps and indicated more cuts to come.  The aligns with what many strategists see as a cyclical acceleration, with leading economic indicators trending higher. The resulting momentum lifted the S&P 500 return 3.65%, bringing year-to-date returns to just under 15%.  In fact, the S&P 500 climbed to all-time highs during the month.  Asian equity markets—Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China—also climbed to all-time highs, with all those markets posting double-digit returns in the third quarter.  Gold also reached an all-time high, with a 12% return in the month.  

10-year rates declined 21 bps to a low of 4.02% just before the Fed rate cut, before bouncing higher to finish the month at 4.15%, down 8 bps in September.  Duration assets performed well during the month, with the 10-year Treasury bonds returning 0.94%.  Investment grade bonds were up 1.43% with lower rates and spread compression.  High Yield was up 0.76% due to spread compression.  Loans were up 0.48% as the Fed commentary about future rate cuts reduced the forward curve by another ~5bps.

Economic activity continues to outpace consensus expectations.  Easing financial conditions, resilient growth, and fiscal and monetary support continue to strengthen the bid for financial assets.  Economic and trade policy uncertainty is subsiding.  The labor market remains the key uncertainty driving the Fed’s recent and expected rate cuts. Hiring and wage growth are slowing, suggesting conditions are easing after a long period of tightness. Unemployment is rising, and caution is increasing among employers and workers.  Labor markets were imbalanced before immigration policy shifted, particularly in industries sensitive to immigration.  Immigration policy is compressing the labor force, resulting in 1.5 million fewer foreign workers over the last few months.  Demographics is another well-known and frequently mentioned element that secularly influences the labor markets.   A growing labor force increases the economy’s potential GDP growth and has been an underpinning of US growth over the last 15 years.  A shrinking workforce can slow growth while pushing up costs as workers gain bargaining power.  Two-thirds of industries currently have more job openings than unemployed workers. Francois Trahan of The Macro Institute has highlighted that over the past few years, there have been more job openings than unemployed workers, a dynamic last seen in the 1960s.  Given these structural changes in the labor force, higher wages are probable, and could exert upward pressure on inflation, ultimately reversing the current cyclical slowdown in job creation.

High Yield

High Yield bonds returned 0.76% during the month due to spreads and yields declining 5bps to 6.73%.  Spreads ended at 299 bps, down from 304 bps to start the month.  Single-Bs led the ratings cohort returns up 0.81% as yields for Single-Bs declined 18bps from 6.93% to 6.75%.  Single-B spreads ended the month at 304bps down 16 bps.   BBs posted 0.79% return with just 2 bps of a decline in yield and spread.  CCCs were up 0.41% as yields were 1bps tighter at 11.78% but spreads widened by 8 bps to 814 bps.

Loans

Loans posted a relatively benign 0.48% return.  Spreads for Loans compressed 5bps to 451 bps while yields declined 3 bps to 7.82% The Fed commentary around future rate cuts for the rest of this year influenced the forward SOFR curve.  Rate expectations for the end of 2025 dropped to 3.66% from 3.76% or 10 bps, and the end of 2026 increased from 2.93% to 3.03%.  Loan prices declined 4 cents to $96.42.  Loans saw a similar dynamic as HY with Single-Bs outperforming up 0.61%, BBs up 0.51%, and CCC lagging with a 0.08% return.  

September ended up being an eventful period for a large loan issuer we have not owned, First Brands Group.  First Brands Group owns a large collection of auto aftermarket brands.  First Brands Group attempted to refinance its ~$6.0bn debt structure (loan-only structure) at par, but the deal was pulled in early August with investors allegedly concerned about the potential of unreported off-balance sheet working capital financing and other accounting issues.  The company said they would hire a Big Four Audit firm to perform a Quality-of-Earnings report.  News continued to come out in the weeks that followed, and First Brands Group filed multiple Special Purpose Vehicles for bankruptcy on September 24, 2025.  First Brands Group then filed for bankruptcy on September 28, 2025, with minimal cash left.

According to the bankruptcy documents filed so far, First Brands Group has $6.1bn of funded debt, $2.3bn in off-balance sheet debt obligations (excluding factored accounts receivable), and $800mm in unsecured supply chain financing liabilities.  The court filings also noted that a Special Committee is investigating whether receivables had been turned over to third-party factors upon receipt and whether receivables were factored more than once.  The filings also noted that inventory pledged to a SPV entity might have been commingled with the inventory of the First Brand Group debtors.  It is unclear if there are other issues with historical financial statements, as an investigation is ongoing.

The 1st lien loans traded down into the $30s from around $95 at the beginning of September.  The lender group is also injecting $1.1 billion of additional capital in the form of a debtor-in-possession loan.

We highlight this company because it will be an interesting case to follow and it highlights our investment process.  We have stated in these letters and in person that outperformance in the Loan market has come from avoiding potential problems.  We believe that avoiding the problems will lead to outperformance.  We continually passed on First Brands new issuance and secondary opportunities as we could not get comfortable with the margins the company was earning and the individual owner had limited information publicly available.  

CLOs

CLOs were large owners of First Brands.  This loan was a tough loss for CLOs that held it given prices went from 95 to 30 in a matter of a week, but ultimately it is a manageable problem for CLOs given concentration limitations.  The situation highlights what we have been telling investors: that chasing the highest cash-on-cash returns is not the ideal strategy.  Cash-on-cash returns should be balanced with the mitigation of par loss in order to maximize the return of CLO Equity over the life cycle of any given deal.

Returns as of September 30, 2025

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www.barrowhanley.com

10.24.2025
Follow us:

Market Recap

September was a strong month for risk assets as the Fed cut rates 25 bps and indicated more cuts to come.  The aligns with what many strategists see as a cyclical acceleration, with leading economic indicators trending higher. The resulting momentum lifted the S&P 500 return 3.65%, bringing year-to-date returns to just under 15%.  In fact, the S&P 500 climbed to all-time highs during the month.  Asian equity markets—Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China—also climbed to all-time highs, with all those markets posting double-digit returns in the third quarter.  Gold also reached an all-time high, with a 12% return in the month.  

10-year rates declined 21 bps to a low of 4.02% just before the Fed rate cut, before bouncing higher to finish the month at 4.15%, down 8 bps in September.  Duration assets performed well during the month, with the 10-year Treasury bonds returning 0.94%.  Investment grade bonds were up 1.43% with lower rates and spread compression.  High Yield was up 0.76% due to spread compression.  Loans were up 0.48% as the Fed commentary about future rate cuts reduced the forward curve by another ~5bps.

Economic activity continues to outpace consensus expectations.  Easing financial conditions, resilient growth, and fiscal and monetary support continue to strengthen the bid for financial assets.  Economic and trade policy uncertainty is subsiding.  The labor market remains the key uncertainty driving the Fed’s recent and expected rate cuts. Hiring and wage growth are slowing, suggesting conditions are easing after a long period of tightness. Unemployment is rising, and caution is increasing among employers and workers.  Labor markets were imbalanced before immigration policy shifted, particularly in industries sensitive to immigration.  Immigration policy is compressing the labor force, resulting in 1.5 million fewer foreign workers over the last few months.  Demographics is another well-known and frequently mentioned element that secularly influences the labor markets.   A growing labor force increases the economy’s potential GDP growth and has been an underpinning of US growth over the last 15 years.  A shrinking workforce can slow growth while pushing up costs as workers gain bargaining power.  Two-thirds of industries currently have more job openings than unemployed workers. Francois Trahan of The Macro Institute has highlighted that over the past few years, there have been more job openings than unemployed workers, a dynamic last seen in the 1960s.  Given these structural changes in the labor force, higher wages are probable, and could exert upward pressure on inflation, ultimately reversing the current cyclical slowdown in job creation.

High Yield

High Yield bonds returned 0.76% during the month due to spreads and yields declining 5bps to 6.73%.  Spreads ended at 299 bps, down from 304 bps to start the month.  Single-Bs led the ratings cohort returns up 0.81% as yields for Single-Bs declined 18bps from 6.93% to 6.75%.  Single-B spreads ended the month at 304bps down 16 bps.   BBs posted 0.79% return with just 2 bps of a decline in yield and spread.  CCCs were up 0.41% as yields were 1bps tighter at 11.78% but spreads widened by 8 bps to 814 bps.

Loans

Loans posted a relatively benign 0.48% return.  Spreads for Loans compressed 5bps to 451 bps while yields declined 3 bps to 7.82% The Fed commentary around future rate cuts for the rest of this year influenced the forward SOFR curve.  Rate expectations for the end of 2025 dropped to 3.66% from 3.76% or 10 bps, and the end of 2026 increased from 2.93% to 3.03%.  Loan prices declined 4 cents to $96.42.  Loans saw a similar dynamic as HY with Single-Bs outperforming up 0.61%, BBs up 0.51%, and CCC lagging with a 0.08% return.  

September ended up being an eventful period for a large loan issuer we have not owned, First Brands Group.  First Brands Group owns a large collection of auto aftermarket brands.  First Brands Group attempted to refinance its ~$6.0bn debt structure (loan-only structure) at par, but the deal was pulled in early August with investors allegedly concerned about the potential of unreported off-balance sheet working capital financing and other accounting issues.  The company said they would hire a Big Four Audit firm to perform a Quality-of-Earnings report.  News continued to come out in the weeks that followed, and First Brands Group filed multiple Special Purpose Vehicles for bankruptcy on September 24, 2025.  First Brands Group then filed for bankruptcy on September 28, 2025, with minimal cash left.

According to the bankruptcy documents filed so far, First Brands Group has $6.1bn of funded debt, $2.3bn in off-balance sheet debt obligations (excluding factored accounts receivable), and $800mm in unsecured supply chain financing liabilities.  The court filings also noted that a Special Committee is investigating whether receivables had been turned over to third-party factors upon receipt and whether receivables were factored more than once.  The filings also noted that inventory pledged to a SPV entity might have been commingled with the inventory of the First Brand Group debtors.  It is unclear if there are other issues with historical financial statements, as an investigation is ongoing.

The 1st lien loans traded down into the $30s from around $95 at the beginning of September.  The lender group is also injecting $1.1 billion of additional capital in the form of a debtor-in-possession loan.

We highlight this company because it will be an interesting case to follow and it highlights our investment process.  We have stated in these letters and in person that outperformance in the Loan market has come from avoiding potential problems.  We believe that avoiding the problems will lead to outperformance.  We continually passed on First Brands new issuance and secondary opportunities as we could not get comfortable with the margins the company was earning and the individual owner had limited information publicly available.  

CLOs

CLOs were large owners of First Brands.  This loan was a tough loss for CLOs that held it given prices went from 95 to 30 in a matter of a week, but ultimately it is a manageable problem for CLOs given concentration limitations.  The situation highlights what we have been telling investors: that chasing the highest cash-on-cash returns is not the ideal strategy.  Cash-on-cash returns should be balanced with the mitigation of par loss in order to maximize the return of CLO Equity over the life cycle of any given deal.

Returns as of September 30, 2025

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